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Jury Deliberates on Trump Trial: Three Potential Outcomes

Former President Donald Trump . IMAGE | Courtesy

In Summary:

  • Jury to decide on Trump’s guilt or innocence in felony charges.
  • Possible outcomes include conviction, acquittal, or a hung jury.


After more than five weeks of testimony and extensive document reviews, New York Justice Juan Merchan will soon instruct a jury of 12 New Yorkers to make a critical decision: whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty of felony charges.

Following the final arguments on Tuesday, Justice Merchan will provide detailed instructions, outlining each charge and the necessary elements for the alleged crime.

These instructions, while technical, will guide the jurors’ deliberations.

Donald Trump has pleaded not guilty to 34 counts of falsifying business records related to a hush-money payment to adult-film star Stormy Daniels, who alleged an affair with Trump.

Prosecutors claim Trump falsely recorded the reimbursement to his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, as legal expenses and concealed a secondary crime—a state election law violation.

The defense has aimed to undermine the credibility of key witness Michael Cohen, a former lawyer and convicted felon, in an effort to weaken the prosecution’s case.

Ultimately, the jury’s decision will determine if Trump will be the first former president convicted of a felony.

Potential Jury Decisions:

Trump is Found Guilty:
For a conviction, all 12 jurors must agree that Trump is guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. This outcome would make Trump the first major party candidate running for US president as a felon.

A guilty verdict would almost certainly lead to an appeal from Trump’s legal team, who have already sought a mistrial multiple times.

If convicted, Trump faces up to four years in prison, though experts suggest his age and non-violent offense might result in probation and a fine instead.

A prison sentence would pose logistical challenges for court officers and Secret Service personnel responsible for his protection.


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Trump is Acquitted:
If the jury finds that prosecutors have not proven Trump’s guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, he would be acquitted of the charges.

This would represent a significant setback for the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office.

A Hung Jury:
A single juror’s dissent can prevent a unanimous decision, leading to a hung jury. If the jury cannot reach a unanimous verdict, Justice Merchan may ask them to deliberate further.

If they still cannot agree, he would declare a mistrial, forcing prosecutors to decide whether to retry the case.